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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Cincinnati Bengals 4th & 12 at the 57

Cincinnati Bengals 7 – New York Giants 0

What Actually Happened

(:29) 8-R.Rehkow punts 57 yards to end zone, Center-48-C.Adomitis, Touchback.

The Three Options

GO -0.95 EP
  • 32% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 45, worth +1.82 EP
  • 68% chance to fail: New York Giants takes over around their own 57, worth -2.27 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (74 yards).

PUNT -0.25 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • New York Giants would take over around their own 17, worth -0.25 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model