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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 New York Giants 4th & 2 at the 62

New York Giants 0 – Cincinnati Bengals 7

What Actually Happened

(13:56) (Shotgun) 8-D.Jones pass incomplete short left to 17-W.Robinson (21-M.Hilton).

The Three Options

GO +0.11 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 62% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 60, worth +2.35 EP
  • 38% chance to fail: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 62, worth -3.47 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (79 yards).

PUNT -0.65 EP
  • Cincinnati Bengals would take over around their own 21, worth -0.65 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model