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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 New York Giants 4th & 2 at the 60

New York Giants 0 – Cincinnati Bengals 7

What Actually Happened

(10:11) (Shotgun) 29-T.Tracy right end to NYG 44 for 4 yards (24-V.Bell; 94-S.Hubbard).

The Three Options

GO -0.05 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 61% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 58, worth +2.04 EP
  • 39% chance to fail: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 60, worth -3.37 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (77 yards).

PUNT -0.68 EP
  • Cincinnati Bengals would take over around their own 19, worth -0.68 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model