4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Cincinnati Bengals 4th & 19 at the 19

Cincinnati Bengals 7 – New York Giants 7

What Actually Happened

(:45) 2-E.McPherson 37 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-C.Adomitis, Holder-8-R.Rehkow.

The Three Options

GO +0.83 EP
  • 22% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +5.73 EP
  • 78% chance to fail: New York Giants takes over around their own 19, worth -0.57 EP
KICK +1.58 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 93% chance to make a 36-yard field goal: 3 points, then New York Giants takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.79 EP
  • 7% chance to miss: New York Giants takes over around their own 29, worth -1.21 EP
PUNT +0.15 EP
  • New York Giants would take over around their own 11, worth +0.15 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model