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Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades.
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Q4
New York Giants
4th & 1 at the 46
New York Giants 7 – Cincinnati Bengals 10
What Actually Happened
(13:30) 8-D.Jones right guard to CIN 45 for 1 yard (92-B.Hill).
The Three Options
GO
+1.15 EP
What Happened
Model's Pick
-
70% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 45, worth +2.73 EP
- 30% chance to fail: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 46, worth -2.56 EP
KICK
-0.79 EP
- 44% chance to make a 63-yard field goal: 3 points, then Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.61 EP
- 56% chance to miss: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 49, worth -2.70 EP
PUNT
-0.37 EP
- Cincinnati Bengals would take over around their own 13, worth -0.37 EP
The Verdict
Chose GO
✓ matched the model
