4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 New York Giants 4th & 5 at the 28

New York Giants 7 – Cincinnati Bengals 10

What Actually Happened

(10:32) 34-G.Joseph 47 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Left, Center-59-C.Kreiter, Holder-38-M.Haack.

The Three Options

GO +1.03 EP
Model's Pick
  • 42% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 23, worth +4.37 EP
  • 58% chance to fail: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 28, worth -1.37 EP
KICK +0.91 EP
What Happened
  • 84% chance to make a 45-yard field goal: 3 points, then Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.48 EP
  • 16% chance to miss: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 38, worth -2.05 EP
PUNT -0.47 EP
  • Cincinnati Bengals would take over around their own 11, worth -0.47 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model