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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Cincinnati Bengals 4th & 10 at the 44

Cincinnati Bengals 10 – New York Giants 7

What Actually Happened

(8:13) 8-R.Rehkow punts 33 yards to NYG 11, Center-48-C.Adomitis, fair catch by 87-I.Smith-Marsette.

The Three Options

GO -0.06 EP
Model's Pick
  • 34% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 34, worth +3.69 EP
  • 66% chance to fail: New York Giants takes over around their own 44, worth -1.95 EP
KICK -0.37 EP
  • 50% chance to make a 61-yard field goal: 3 points, then New York Giants takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.72 EP
  • 50% chance to miss: New York Giants takes over around their own 49, worth -2.42 EP
PUNT -0.26 EP
What Happened
  • New York Giants would take over around their own 12, worth -0.26 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model