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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Cincinnati Bengals 4th & 1 at the 88

Cincinnati Bengals 7 – New York Giants 0

What Actually Happened

(8:25) 8-R.Rehkow punts 55 yards to NYG 33, Center-48-C.Adomitis. 87-I.Smith-Marsette to NYG 33 for no gain (26-T.Anderson).

The Three Options

GO -1.67 EP
Model's Pick
  • 75% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 87, worth -0.47 EP
  • 25% chance to fail: New York Giants takes over around their own 88, worth -5.29 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (105 yards).

PUNT -2.77 EP
What Happened
  • New York Giants would take over around their own 46, worth -2.77 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.10 EP