4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Cincinnati Bengals 4th & 7 at the 46

Cincinnati Bengals 7 – New York Giants 0

What Actually Happened

(15:00) 8-R.Rehkow punts 32 yards to NYG 14, Center-48-C.Adomitis, fair catch by 87-I.Smith-Marsette.

The Three Options

GO -0.46 EP
  • 39% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 39, worth +3.02 EP
  • 61% chance to fail: New York Giants takes over around their own 46, worth -2.71 EP
KICK -0.94 EP
  • 44% chance to make a 63-yard field goal: 3 points, then New York Giants takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.43 EP
  • 56% chance to miss: New York Giants takes over around their own 49, worth -2.83 EP
PUNT -0.29 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • New York Giants would take over around their own 13, worth -0.29 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model