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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Philadelphia Eagles 4th & 4 at the 31

Philadelphia Eagles 0 – Cleveland Browns 0

What Actually Happened

(13:06) 4-J.Elliott 49 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-R.Lovato, Holder-10-B.Mann.

The Three Options

GO +1.35 EP
Model's Pick
  • 45% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 27, worth +4.37 EP
  • 55% chance to fail: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 31, worth -1.16 EP
KICK +0.96 EP
What Happened
  • 76% chance to make a 48-yard field goal: 3 points, then Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.87 EP
  • 24% chance to miss: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 41, worth -1.87 EP
PUNT +0.10 EP
  • Cleveland Browns would take over around their own 11, worth +0.10 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.39 EP