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Cleveland Browns

HC Kevin Stefanski
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Philadelphia Eagles

HC Nick Sirianni
Sunday 2024-10-13 · 13:00 Lincoln Financial Field, Philadelphia US ☀️ Clear Spread 8.0 O/U 42.0

Win Probability

CLE
22.6%
PHI
77.4%
☀️ Clear

Confidence: <strong>strong edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • CLE offense: -0.236 EPA/play over its last 8 games (32nd in the league)
  • Deshaun Watson (CLE): -0.164 EPA/dropback in prior starts
  • PHI defense: +0.093 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (25th in the league)
  • PHI on 7 more days rest than CLE

Predicted Final Score

CLE 17
–
PHI 26
Projected margin: PHI by 9 Projected total: 43

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 6

CLE

Grant Delpit S Out Concussion
Ronnie Hickman S Out Ankle
James Hudson T Out Shoulder
Ethan Pocic C Out Knee
Nick Chubb RB Out Knee
Nyheim Miller-Hines RB Out Knee
Mohamoud Diabate LB Questionable Hip
Maurice Hurst DT Questionable Ankle
Jordan Hicks LB Questionable Elbow
Denzel Ward CB Questionable Hamstring

PHI

No players on the report.

Pulled fresh for 2024 week 6 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

CLE 16
–
PHI 20

Prediction missed by 5 pts on margin, 7 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q2 13:06 FG PHI (13:06) 4-J.Elliott 49 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-R.Lovato, Holder-10-B.Mann. CLE 0 – PHI 3
  • Q2 07:24 TD PHI (7:24) (Shotgun) 1-J.Hurts pass deep left to 11-A.Brown for 22 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CLE 0 – PHI 9
  • Q2 02:02 FG CLE (2:02) 7-D.Hopkins 43 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-50-R.Sunahara, Holder-13-C.Bojorquez. CLE 3 – PHI 10
  • Q2 00:25 TD CLE (:25) 4-J.Elliott 57 yard field goal is BLOCKED (95-M.Garrett), Center-49-R.Lovato, Holder-10-B.Mann, RECOVERED by CLE-12-R.McLeod at 50. 12-R.McLeod for 50 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CLE 9 – PHI 10
  • Q3 02:54 FG PHI (2:54) 4-J.Elliott 44 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-R.Lovato, Holder-10-B.Mann. CLE 10 – PHI 13
  • Q4 09:53 FG CLE (9:53) 7-D.Hopkins 49 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-50-R.Sunahara, Holder-13-C.Bojorquez. CLE 13 – PHI 13
  • Q4 08:03 TD PHI (8:03) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 1-J.Hurts pass short right to 6-D.Smith for 45 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CLE 13 – PHI 19
  • Q4 03:57 FG CLE (3:57) 7-D.Hopkins 31 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-50-R.Sunahara, Holder-13-C.Bojorquez. CLE 16 – PHI 20

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 PHI 4th & 5 at the 69
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 47%

    (14:09) 10-B.Mann punts 55 yards to CLE 14, Center-49-R.Lovato. 16-J.Darden to CLE 33 for 19 yards (57-B.VanSumeren).

  • Q1 CLE 4th & 5 at the 62
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 43%

    (12:52) 13-C.Bojorquez punts 44 yards to PHI 18, Center-50-R.Sunahara. 33-C.DeJean to PHI 31 for 13 yards (37-Da.Bell; 31-M.Ford).

  • Q1 PHI 4th & 1 at the 60
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 71%

    (11:27) 1-J.Hurts left tackle to PHI 43 for 3 yards (6-J.Owusu-Koramoah).

  • Q1 PHI 4th & 6 at the 53
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 42% p(FG) 22%

    (10:07) 10-B.Mann punts 44 yards to CLE 9, Center-49-R.Lovato. 16-J.Darden to CLE 16 for 7 yards (28-W.Shipley).

  • Q2 PHI 4th & 4 at the 31
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.39 EP
    p(convert) 45% p(FG) 76%

    (13:06) 4-J.Elliott 49 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-R.Lovato, Holder-10-B.Mann.

  • Q2 CLE 4th & 9 at the 69
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 34%

    (12:16) 13-C.Bojorquez punts 55 yards to PHI 14, Center-50-R.Sunahara. 33-C.DeJean to PHI 28 for 14 yards (37-Da.Bell). CLE-31-M.Ford was injured during the play. PENALTY on PHI-42-O.Burks, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at PHI 26.

  • Q2 PHI 4th & 1 at the 26
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 68% p(FG) 84%

    (8:41) 1-J.Hurts up the middle to CLE 25 for 1 yard (6-J.Owusu-Koramoah).

  • Q2 CLE 4th & 4 at the 34
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 43% p(FG) 69%

    (4:18) (Shotgun) 4-D.Watson pass short right to 85-D.Njoku to PHI 20 for 14 yards (27-Q.Mitchell; 32-R.Blankenship).

  • Q2 CLE 4th & 15 at the 25
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 23% p(FG) 86%

    (2:02) 7-D.Hopkins 43 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-50-R.Sunahara, Holder-13-C.Bojorquez.

  • Q2 PHI 4th & 9 at the 39
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 33% p(FG) 56%

    (:25) 4-J.Elliott 57 yard field goal is BLOCKED (95-M.Garrett), Center-49-R.Lovato, Holder-10-B.Mann, RECOVERED by CLE-12-R.McLeod at 50. 12-R.McLeod for 50 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

  • Q3 CLE 4th & 6 at the 34
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 36% p(FG) 69%

    (10:30) 7-D.Hopkins 52 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-50-R.Sunahara, Holder-13-C.Bojorquez.

  • Q3 PHI 4th & 6 at the 54
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 42%

    (9:07) 10-B.Mann punts 47 yards to CLE 7, Center-49-R.Lovato, out of bounds.

  • Q3 CLE 4th & 9 at the 92
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 37%

    (6:58) 13-C.Bojorquez punts 64 yards to PHI 28, Center-50-R.Sunahara. 33-C.DeJean pushed ob at PHI 47 for 19 yards (39-K.Hudson).

  • Q3 PHI 4th & 13 at the 26
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 27% p(FG) 84%

    (2:54) 4-J.Elliott 44 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-R.Lovato, Holder-10-B.Mann.

  • Q4 CLE 4th & 13 at the 31
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 25% p(FG) 76%

    (9:53) 7-D.Hopkins 49 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-50-R.Sunahara, Holder-13-C.Bojorquez.

  • Q4 CLE 4th & 13 at the 13 late-game
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 23% p(FG) 96%

    (3:57) 7-D.Hopkins 31 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-50-R.Sunahara, Holder-13-C.Bojorquez.