Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Cleveland Browns 4th & 9 at the 69

Cleveland Browns 0 – Philadelphia Eagles 3

What Actually Happened

(12:16) 13-C.Bojorquez punts 55 yards to PHI 14, Center-50-R.Sunahara. 33-C.DeJean to PHI 28 for 14 yards (37-Da.Bell). CLE-31-M.Ford was injured during the play. PENALTY on PHI-42-O.Burks, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at PHI 26.

The Three Options

GO -1.99 EP

34% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 60, worth +1.88 EP
66% chance to fail: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 69, worth -4.00 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (86 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model