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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Philadelphia Eagles 4th & 5 at the 69

Philadelphia Eagles 0 – Cleveland Browns 0

What Actually Happened

(14:09) 10-B.Mann punts 55 yards to CLE 14, Center-49-R.Lovato. 16-J.Darden to CLE 33 for 19 yards (57-B.VanSumeren).

The Three Options

GO -0.87 EP
  • 47% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 64, worth +2.52 EP
  • 53% chance to fail: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 69, worth -3.84 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (86 yards).

PUNT -0.71 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Cleveland Browns would take over around their own 27, worth -0.71 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model