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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Philadelphia Eagles 4th & 1 at the 26

Philadelphia Eagles 3 – Cleveland Browns 0

What Actually Happened

(8:41) 1-J.Hurts up the middle to CLE 25 for 1 yard (6-J.Owusu-Koramoah).

The Three Options

GO +2.65 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 68% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 25, worth +4.48 EP
  • 32% chance to fail: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 26, worth -1.15 EP
KICK +1.13 EP
  • 84% chance to make a 43-yard field goal: 3 points, then Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.66 EP
  • 16% chance to miss: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 36, worth -1.75 EP
PUNT -0.26 EP
  • Cleveland Browns would take over around their own 11, worth -0.26 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model