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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Cleveland Browns 4th & 15 at the 25

Cleveland Browns 0 – Philadelphia Eagles 10

What Actually Happened

(2:02) 7-D.Hopkins 43 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-50-R.Sunahara, Holder-13-C.Bojorquez.

The Three Options

GO +0.11 EP
  • 23% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 10, worth +5.14 EP
  • 77% chance to fail: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 25, worth -1.35 EP
KICK +0.87 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 86% chance to make a 42-yard field goal: 3 points, then Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.34 EP
  • 14% chance to miss: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 35, worth -1.93 EP
PUNT -0.62 EP
  • Philadelphia Eagles would take over around their own 11, worth -0.62 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model