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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Philadelphia Eagles 4th & 9 at the 39

Philadelphia Eagles 10 – Cleveland Browns 3

What Actually Happened

(:25) 4-J.Elliott 57 yard field goal is BLOCKED (95-M.Garrett), Center-49-R.Lovato, Holder-10-B.Mann, RECOVERED by CLE-12-R.McLeod at 50. 12-R.McLeod for 50 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

The Three Options

GO +0.31 EP
  • 33% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 30, worth +3.06 EP
  • 67% chance to fail: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 39, worth -1.07 EP
KICK +0.65 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 56% chance to make a 56-yard field goal: 3 points, then Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +2.41 EP
  • 44% chance to miss: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 48, worth -1.62 EP
PUNT -0.13 EP
  • Cleveland Browns would take over around their own 11, worth -0.13 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model