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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Philadelphia Eagles 4th & 13 at the 26

Philadelphia Eagles 10 – Cleveland Browns 10

What Actually Happened

(2:54) 4-J.Elliott 44 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-R.Lovato, Holder-10-B.Mann.

The Three Options

GO +0.74 EP
  • 27% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 13, worth +5.17 EP
  • 73% chance to fail: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 26, worth -0.87 EP
KICK +1.22 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 84% chance to make a 43-yard field goal: 3 points, then Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.78 EP
  • 16% chance to miss: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 36, worth -1.79 EP
PUNT +0.05 EP
  • Cleveland Browns would take over around their own 11, worth +0.05 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model