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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Cleveland Browns 4th & 13 at the 31

Cleveland Browns 10 – Philadelphia Eagles 13

What Actually Happened

(9:53) 7-D.Hopkins 49 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-50-R.Sunahara, Holder-13-C.Bojorquez.

The Three Options

GO +0.09 EP
  • 25% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 18, worth +4.70 EP
  • 75% chance to fail: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 31, worth -1.44 EP
KICK +0.69 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 76% chance to make a 48-yard field goal: 3 points, then Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.57 EP
  • 24% chance to miss: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 41, worth -2.02 EP
PUNT -0.35 EP
  • Philadelphia Eagles would take over around their own 11, worth -0.35 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model