4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Cleveland Browns 4th & 13 at the 13

Cleveland Browns 13 – Philadelphia Eagles 20

What Actually Happened

(3:57) 7-D.Hopkins 31 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-50-R.Sunahara, Holder-13-C.Bojorquez.

The Three Options

GO +1.00 EP
  • 23% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +5.81 EP
  • 77% chance to fail: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 13, worth -0.44 EP
KICK +1.76 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 96% chance to make a 30-yard field goal: 3 points, then Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.87 EP
  • 4% chance to miss: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 23, worth -0.78 EP
PUNT -0.39 EP
  • Philadelphia Eagles would take over around their own 11, worth -0.39 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model