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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Indianapolis Colts 4th & 3 at the 8

Indianapolis Colts 7 – Tennessee Titans 10

What Actually Happened

(:22) 7-M.Gay 26 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-L.Rhodes, Holder-8-R.Sanchez.

The Three Options

GO +2.68 EP
Model's Pick
  • 47% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 5, worth +5.67 EP
  • 53% chance to fail: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 8, worth +0.02 EP
KICK +2.35 EP
What Happened
  • 97% chance to make a 25-yard field goal: 3 points, then Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +2.42 EP
  • 3% chance to miss: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 21, worth -0.31 EP
PUNT -0.08 EP
  • Tennessee Titans would take over around their own 11, worth -0.08 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.34 EP