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Indianapolis Colts

HC Shane Steichen
@
TEN Home

Tennessee Titans

HC Brian Callahan
Sunday 2024-10-13 · 13:00 Nissan Stadium, Nashville US ☀️ Clear Spread 2.5 O/U 42.0

Win Probability

IND
50.0%
TEN
50.0%
☀️ Clear

Confidence: <strong>coin flip</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • TEN offense: -0.157 EPA/play over its last 8 games (28th in the league)
  • TEN defense: -0.082 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (4th in the league)
  • TEN on 6 more days rest than IND
  • IND offense: +0.033 EPA/play over its last 8 games (15th in the league)
  • QB edge to IND: Will Levis (TEN) -0.117 vs Joe Flacco (IND) -0.034 EPA/dropback
  • IND defense: +0.083 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (23rd in the league)

Predicted Final Score

IND 20
–
TEN 21
Projected margin: TEN by 1 Projected total: 41

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 6

IND

Jonathan Taylor RB Out Ankle
Braden Smith T Questionable Knee
Josh Downs WR Questionable Toe
Kenny Moore CB Questionable Hip
Michael Pittman WR Questionable Back
Anthony Richardson QB Questionable Oblique

TEN

Jamal Adams S Out Hip
Keondre Coburn DT Out Knee
Cedric Gray LB Out Shoulder

Pulled fresh for 2024 week 6 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

IND 20
–
TEN 17

Prediction missed by 4 pts on margin, 4 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 11:23 TD IND (11:23) (Shotgun) 15-J.Flacco pass deep left to 1-J.Downs for 22 yards, TOUCHDOWN. IND 6 – TEN 0
  • Q1 06:55 TD TEN (6:55) (Shotgun) 8-W.Levis pass short right to 15-N.Westbrook-Ikhine for 9 yards, TOUCHDOWN. IND 7 – TEN 6
  • Q2 11:13 FG TEN (11:13) 6-N.Folk 44 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-M.Cox, Holder-4-R.Stonehouse. IND 7 – TEN 10
  • Q2 00:22 FG IND (:22) 7-M.Gay 26 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-L.Rhodes, Holder-8-R.Sanchez. IND 10 – TEN 10
  • Q3 06:26 TD TEN (6:26) (Shotgun) 20-T.Pollard up the middle for 23 yards, TOUCHDOWN. IND 10 – TEN 16
  • Q4 15:00 FG IND (15:00) 7-M.Gay 22 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-L.Rhodes, Holder-8-R.Sanchez. IND 13 – TEN 17
  • Q4 07:32 TD IND (7:32) (Shotgun) 15-J.Flacco pass short right to 11-M.Pittman for 10 yards, TOUCHDOWN. IND 19 – TEN 17

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 TEN 4th & 3 at the 68
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 53%

    (9:19) 4-R.Stonehouse punts 47 yards to IND 21, Center-46-M.Cox. 1-J.Downs to IND 36 for 15 yards (44-M.Brown).

  • Q1 IND 4th & 9 at the 69
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 37%

    (5:21) 8-R.Sanchez punts 49 yards to TEN 20, Center-46-L.Rhodes. 19-J.Jackson to TEN 18 for -2 yards (16-A.Dulin).

  • Q2 TEN 4th & 3 at the 26
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.47 EP
    p(convert) 48% p(FG) 84%

    (11:13) 6-N.Folk 44 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-M.Cox, Holder-4-R.Stonehouse.

  • Q2 IND 4th & 10 at the 60
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 34%

    (7:44) 8-R.Sanchez punts 60 yards to end zone, Center-46-L.Rhodes, Touchback.

  • Q2 TEN 4th & 13 at the 64
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 29%

    (3:50) 4-R.Stonehouse punts 58 yards to IND 6, Center-46-M.Cox. 1-J.Downs to IND 29 for 23 yards (81-J.Whyle, 57-L.Gifford).

  • Q2 IND 4th & 3 at the 8
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.34 EP
    p(convert) 47% p(FG) 97%

    (:22) 7-M.Gay 26 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-L.Rhodes, Holder-8-R.Sanchez.

  • Q3 TEN 4th & 1 at the 34
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 67% p(FG) 68%

    (10:42) 8-W.Levis pass short left to 16-T.Burks to IND 24 for 10 yards (32-J.Blackmon).

  • Q3 IND 4th & 3 at the 24
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 49% p(FG) 86%

    (3:20) (Shotgun) 15-J.Flacco pass short left to 1-J.Downs pushed ob at TEN 19 for 5 yards (28-Q.Diggs).

  • Q4 IND 4th & 4 at the 4
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.91 EP
    p(convert) 42% p(FG) 98%

    (15:00) 7-M.Gay 22 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-L.Rhodes, Holder-8-R.Sanchez.

  • Q4 TEN 4th & 1 at the 61
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.15 EP
    p(convert) 70%

    (12:59) 4-R.Stonehouse punts 51 yards to IND 10, Center-46-M.Cox. 1-J.Downs to IND 25 for 15 yards (44-M.Brown).

  • Q4 TEN 4th & 10 at the 70
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 34%

    (7:13) 4-R.Stonehouse punts 58 yards to IND 12, Center-46-M.Cox. 1-J.Downs to IND 26 for 14 yards (23-T.Avery, 41-O.Reese).

  • Q4 IND 4th & 6 at the 70
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 44%

    (5:45) 8-R.Sanchez punts 51 yards to TEN 19, Center-46-L.Rhodes. 19-J.Jackson pushed ob at TEN 30 for 11 yards (16-A.Dulin).

  • Q4 IND 4th & 7 at the 60 late-game
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 40%

    (3:58) 8-R.Sanchez punts 54 yards to TEN 6, Center-46-L.Rhodes, downed by IND-16-A.Dulin.

  • Q4 TEN 4th & 7 at the 75 late-game
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 40%

    (2:26) 4-R.Stonehouse punts 75 yards to end zone, Center-46-M.Cox, Touchback.

  • Q4 IND 4th & 6 at the 60 late-game
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 42%

    (:22) 8-R.Sanchez punts 57 yards to TEN 3, Center-46-L.Rhodes, out of bounds.