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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Tennessee Titans 4th & 1 at the 34

Tennessee Titans 10 – Indianapolis Colts 10

What Actually Happened

(10:42) 8-W.Levis pass short left to 16-T.Burks to IND 24 for 10 yards (32-J.Blackmon).

The Three Options

GO +2.11 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 67% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 33, worth +3.89 EP
  • 33% chance to fail: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 34, worth -1.49 EP
KICK +0.48 EP
  • 68% chance to make a 51-yard field goal: 3 points, then Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.78 EP
  • 32% chance to miss: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 44, worth -2.24 EP
PUNT +0.07 EP
  • Indianapolis Colts would take over around their own 11, worth +0.07 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model