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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Indianapolis Colts 4th & 3 at the 24

Indianapolis Colts 10 – Tennessee Titans 17

What Actually Happened

(3:20) (Shotgun) 15-J.Flacco pass short left to 1-J.Downs pushed ob at TEN 19 for 5 yards (28-Q.Diggs).

The Three Options

GO +1.68 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 49% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 21, worth +4.49 EP
  • 51% chance to fail: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 24, worth -1.05 EP
KICK +1.07 EP
  • 86% chance to make a 41-yard field goal: 3 points, then Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.51 EP
  • 14% chance to miss: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 34, worth -1.77 EP
PUNT -0.22 EP
  • Tennessee Titans would take over around their own 11, worth -0.22 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model