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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Tennessee Titans 4th & 1 at the 61

Tennessee Titans 17 – Indianapolis Colts 13

What Actually Happened

(12:59) 4-R.Stonehouse punts 51 yards to IND 10, Center-46-M.Cox. 1-J.Downs to IND 25 for 15 yards (44-M.Brown).

The Three Options

GO +0.47 EP
Model's Pick
  • 70% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 60, worth +2.08 EP
  • 30% chance to fail: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 61, worth -3.29 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (78 yards).

PUNT -0.68 EP
What Happened
  • Indianapolis Colts would take over around their own 20, worth -0.68 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.15 EP