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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Indianapolis Colts 4th & 7 at the 60

Indianapolis Colts 20 – Tennessee Titans 17

What Actually Happened

(3:58) 8-R.Sanchez punts 54 yards to TEN 6, Center-46-L.Rhodes, downed by IND-16-A.Dulin.

The Three Options

GO -0.86 EP
  • 40% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 53, worth +2.08 EP
  • 60% chance to fail: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 60, worth -2.80 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (77 yards).

PUNT -0.54 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Tennessee Titans would take over around their own 19, worth -0.54 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model