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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Tennessee Titans 4th & 7 at the 75

Tennessee Titans 17 – Indianapolis Colts 20

What Actually Happened

(2:26) 4-R.Stonehouse punts 75 yards to end zone, Center-46-M.Cox, Touchback.

The Three Options

GO -1.73 EP
  • 40% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 68, worth +1.23 EP
  • 60% chance to fail: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 75, worth -3.71 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (92 yards).

PUNT -1.30 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Indianapolis Colts would take over around their own 32, worth -1.30 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model