Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Indianapolis Colts 4th & 6 at the 60

Indianapolis Colts 20 – Tennessee Titans 17

(:22) 8-R.Sanchez punts 57 yards to TEN 3, Center-46-L.Rhodes, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -0.50 EP

42% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 54, worth +0.41 EP
58% chance to fail: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 60, worth -1.16 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (77 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model