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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Indianapolis Colts 4th & 9 at the 69

Indianapolis Colts 7 – Tennessee Titans 7

What Actually Happened

(5:21) 8-R.Sanchez punts 49 yards to TEN 20, Center-46-L.Rhodes. 19-J.Jackson to TEN 18 for -2 yards (16-A.Dulin).

The Three Options

GO -1.82 EP
  • 37% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 60, worth +1.83 EP
  • 63% chance to fail: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 69, worth -3.95 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (86 yards).

PUNT -1.16 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Tennessee Titans would take over around their own 27, worth -1.16 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model