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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Jacksonville Jaguars 4th & 2 at the 63

Jacksonville Jaguars 3 – Chicago Bears 7

What Actually Happened

(3:15) 9-L.Cooke punts 48 yards to CHI 15, Center-46-R.Matiscik, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -0.36 EP
Model's Pick
  • 60% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 61, worth +1.78 EP
  • 40% chance to fail: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 63, worth -3.52 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (80 yards).

PUNT -0.86 EP
What Happened
  • Chicago Bears would take over around their own 21, worth -0.86 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.50 EP