Win Probability
Confidence: <strong>coin flip</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.
Key Insights
- Neutral site — no home-field edge
- Caleb Williams (CHI): -0.131 EPA/dropback in prior starts
- CHI defense: -0.105 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (3rd in the league)
- JAX offense: -0.030 EPA/play over its last 8 games (22nd in the league)
- JAX crossing 5 time zone(s)
- JAX defense: +0.054 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (21st in the league)
Predicted Final Score
Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.
Injury Report — Week 6
JAX
CHI
Pulled fresh for 2024 week 6 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.
Actual Result
Prediction missed by 20 pts on margin, 6 pts on total.
Scoring Summary
- Q1 04:40 FG JAX (4:40) 39-C.Little 30 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-R.Matiscik, Holder-9-L.Cooke. JAX 3 – CHI 0
- Q2 11:17 TD CHI (11:17) (Shotgun) 18-C.Williams pass deep middle to 85-C.Kmet for 31 yards, TOUCHDOWN. JAX 3 – CHI 6
- Q2 00:17 TD CHI (:17) (Shotgun) 18-C.Williams pass short right to 85-C.Kmet for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. JAX 3 – CHI 13
- Q3 11:26 TD CHI (11:26) (Shotgun) 18-C.Williams pass short middle to 13-K.Allen for 9 yards, TOUCHDOWN. JAX 3 – CHI 20
- Q3 06:08 TD JAX (6:08) (Shotgun) 16-T.Lawrence pass deep left to 0-G.Davis for 21 yards, TOUCHDOWN. JAX 9 – CHI 21
- Q4 15:00 TD CHI (15:00) 18-C.Williams pass short left to 13-K.Allen for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN. JAX 10 – CHI 27
- Q4 12:33 TD CHI (12:33) 68-D.Kramer reported in as eligible. 4-D.Swift up the middle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. JAX 10 – CHI 34
- Q4 07:03 TD JAX (7:03) (Shotgun) 16-T.Lawrence pass short right to 0-G.Davis for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN. JAX 16 – CHI 35
Fourth-Down Decisions
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Q1 CHI 4th & 6 at the 71Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 44%
(13:01) 19-T.Taylor punts 64 yards to JAX 7, Center-46-S.Daly. 11-P.Washington to JAX 21 for 14 yards (30-T.Moore).
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Q1 JAX 4th & 12 at the 12Chose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 25% p(FG) 96%
(4:40) 39-C.Little 30 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-R.Matiscik, Holder-9-L.Cooke.
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Q1 CHI 4th & 7 at the 67Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 41%
(3:16) 19-T.Taylor punts 59 yards to JAX 8, Center-46-S.Daly. 11-P.Washington pushed ob at JAX 21 for 13 yards (44-N.Sewell). CHI-46-S.Daly was injured during the play.
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Q2 JAX 4th & 7 at the 62Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 39%
(15:00) 9-L.Cooke punts 43 yards to CHI 19, Center-46-R.Matiscik, fair catch by 11-D.Carter.
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Q2 JAX 4th & 4 at the 51Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.41 EPp(convert) 46% p(FG) 31%
(9:34) 9-L.Cooke punts 46 yards to CHI 5, Center-46-R.Matiscik, out of bounds.
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Q2 JAX 4th & 2 at the 63Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.50 EPp(convert) 60%
(3:15) 9-L.Cooke punts 48 yards to CHI 15, Center-46-R.Matiscik, out of bounds.
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Q4 JAX 4th & 1 at the 36Chose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 67% p(FG) 69%
(9:07) (Shotgun) 2-D.Johnson right tackle to CHI 29 for 7 yards (22-E.Hicks, 53-T.Edwards).
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Q4 JAX 4th & 5 at the 5Chose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 37% p(FG) 98%
(7:03) (Shotgun) 16-T.Lawrence pass short right to 0-G.Davis for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
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Q4 CHI 4th & 3 at the 37Chose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 51% p(FG) 66%
(6:07) (Shotgun) 18-C.Williams pass short left to 13-K.Allen to JAX 29 for 8 yards (30-M.Brown).
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Q4 CHI 4th & 6 at the 25 late-gameChose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 38% p(FG) 87%
(3:25) 65-C.Shelton and 68-D.Kramer reported in as eligible. 8-C.Santos 43 yard field goal is BLOCKED (95-R.Robertson-Harris), Center-85-C.Kmet, Holder-19-T.Taylor.
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Q4 JAX 4th & 14 at the 71 late-gameChose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 29%
(2:00) 9-L.Cooke punts 56 yards to CHI 15, Center-46-R.Matiscik, fair catch by 11-D.Carter.