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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Chicago Bears 4th & 6 at the 71

Chicago Bears 0 – Jacksonville Jaguars 0

What Actually Happened

(13:01) 19-T.Taylor punts 64 yards to JAX 7, Center-46-S.Daly. 11-P.Washington to JAX 21 for 14 yards (30-T.Moore).

The Three Options

GO -1.20 EP
  • 44% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +2.26 EP
  • 56% chance to fail: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 71, worth -3.94 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (88 yards).

PUNT -1.01 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Jacksonville Jaguars would take over around their own 29, worth -1.01 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model