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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Jacksonville Jaguars 4th & 1 at the 36

Jacksonville Jaguars 10 – Chicago Bears 35

What Actually Happened

(9:07) (Shotgun) 2-D.Johnson right tackle to CHI 29 for 7 yards (22-E.Hicks, 53-T.Edwards).

The Three Options

GO +1.88 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 67% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 35, worth +3.65 EP
  • 33% chance to fail: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 36, worth -1.75 EP
KICK +0.35 EP
  • 69% chance to make a 53-yard field goal: 3 points, then Chicago Bears takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.63 EP
  • 31% chance to miss: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 46, worth -2.44 EP
PUNT -0.32 EP
  • Chicago Bears would take over around their own 11, worth -0.32 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model