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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Jacksonville Jaguars 4th & 5 at the 5

Jacksonville Jaguars 10 – Chicago Bears 35

What Actually Happened

(7:03) (Shotgun) 16-T.Lawrence pass short right to 0-G.Davis for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

The Three Options

GO +1.92 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 37% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +5.56 EP
  • 63% chance to fail: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 5, worth -0.21 EP
KICK +1.58 EP
  • 98% chance to make a 22-yard field goal: 3 points, then Chicago Bears takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.62 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 21, worth -0.97 EP
PUNT -0.40 EP
  • Chicago Bears would take over around their own 11, worth -0.40 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model