Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Jacksonville Jaguars 4th & 14 at the 71

Jacksonville Jaguars 16 – Chicago Bears 35

(2:00) 9-L.Cooke punts 56 yards to CHI 15, Center-46-R.Matiscik, fair catch by 11-D.Carter.

The Three Options

GO -1.72 EP

29% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 57, worth +1.35 EP
71% chance to fail: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 71, worth -2.98 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (88 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model