Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Chicago Bears 4th & 7 at the 67

Chicago Bears 0 – Jacksonville Jaguars 3

What Actually Happened

(3:16) 19-T.Taylor punts 59 yards to JAX 8, Center-46-S.Daly. 11-P.Washington pushed ob at JAX 21 for 13 yards (44-N.Sewell). CHI-46-S.Daly was injured during the play.

The Three Options

GO -1.29 EP

41% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 60, worth +2.12 EP
59% chance to fail: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 67, worth -3.67 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (84 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model