Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Jacksonville Jaguars 4th & 7 at the 62

Jacksonville Jaguars 3 – Chicago Bears 0

(15:00) 9-L.Cooke punts 43 yards to CHI 19, Center-46-R.Matiscik, fair catch by 11-D.Carter.

The Three Options

GO -1.27 EP

39% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 55, worth +2.15 EP
61% chance to fail: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 62, worth -3.42 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (79 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model