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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Denver Broncos 4th & 5 at the 55

Denver Broncos 0 – Los Angeles Chargers 10

What Actually Happened

(2:02) 9-R.Dixon punts 46 yards to LAC 9, Center-48-M.Fraboni, downed by DEN-57-K.Welch.

The Three Options

GO -0.34 EP
Model's Pick
  • 42% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 50, worth +3.02 EP
  • 58% chance to fail: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 55, worth -2.75 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (72 yards).

PUNT -0.44 EP
What Happened
  • Los Angeles Chargers would take over around their own 16, worth -0.44 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model