4th & Data
EN ES
← Home
LAC Away

Los Angeles Chargers

HC Jim Harbaugh
@
DEN Home

Denver Broncos

HC Sean Payton
Sunday 2024-10-13 · 16:05 Empower Field at Mile High, Denver US ☀️ Clear Spread -3.0 O/U 37.0

Win Probability

LAC
45.8%
DEN
54.2%
☀️ Clear

Confidence: <strong>coin flip</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • LAC offense: -0.132 EPA/play over its last 8 games (27th in the league)
  • DEN offense: -0.127 EPA/play over its last 8 games (25th in the league)
  • DEN defense: -0.136 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (2nd in the league)
  • QB edge to LAC: Bo Nix (DEN) -0.206 vs Justin Herbert (LAC) -0.007 EPA/dropback
  • LAC on 7 more days rest than DEN
  • LAC defense: -0.077 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (5th in the league)

Predicted Final Score

LAC 19
–
DEN 20
Projected margin: DEN by 1 Projected total: 39

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 6

LAC

Gus Edwards RB Out Ankle
Asante Samuel CB Out Shoulder
Ja'Sir Taylor CB Out Fibula
Kristian Fulton CB Questionable Knee
Nick Niemann LB Questionable Hamstring
Joey Bosa DE Questionable Hip
Deane Leonard CB Questionable Hamstring
Rashawn Slater T Questionable Pectoral

DEN

Alex Palczewski T Out Ankle
Josh Reynolds WR Out Hand
Luke Wattenberg C Out Ankle
Audric Estime RB Questionable Ankle
Damarri Mathis CB Questionable Ankle

Pulled fresh for 2024 week 6 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

LAC 23
–
DEN 16

Prediction missed by 8 pts on margin, 0 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 09:28 FG LAC (9:28) 11-C.Dicker 20 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.Harris, Holder-16-J.Scott. LAC 3 – DEN 0
  • Q1 05:06 TD LAC (5:06) (Shotgun) 10-J.Herbert pass deep right to 30-K.Vidal for 38 yards, TOUCHDOWN. LAC 9 – DEN 0
  • Q2 06:24 FG LAC (6:24) 11-C.Dicker 33 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.Harris, Holder-16-J.Scott. LAC 13 – DEN 0
  • Q2 01:03 TD LAC (1:03) (Shotgun) 27-J.Dobbins left guard for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN. LAC 19 – DEN 0
  • Q3 02:39 FG LAC (2:39) 11-C.Dicker 46 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.Harris, Holder-16-J.Scott. LAC 23 – DEN 0
  • Q4 10:11 TD DEN (10:11) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 10-B.Nix pass short middle to 16-T.Franklin for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. LAC 23 – DEN 6
  • Q4 05:27 TD DEN (5:27) (Shotgun) 10-B.Nix pass short right to 14-C.Sutton for 15 yards, TOUCHDOWN. The Replay Official reviewed the pass completion ruling, and the play was Upheld. The ruling on the field stands. LAC 23 – DEN 13
  • Q4 01:03 FG DEN (1:03) 3-W.Lutz 40 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-M.Fraboni, Holder-9-R.Dixon. LAC 23 – DEN 16

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 LAC 4th & 2 at the 2
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.40 EP
    p(convert) 50% p(FG) 99%

    (9:28) 11-C.Dicker 20 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.Harris, Holder-16-J.Scott.

  • Q1 DEN 4th & 6 at the 62
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 40%

    (7:59) 9-R.Dixon punts 45 yards to LAC 17, Center-48-M.Fraboni, fair catch by 12-D.Davis.

  • Q1 DEN 4th & 5 at the 55
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 42%

    (2:02) 9-R.Dixon punts 46 yards to LAC 9, Center-48-M.Fraboni, downed by DEN-57-K.Welch.

  • Q2 LAC 4th & 15 at the 15
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 21% p(FG) 95%

    (6:24) 11-C.Dicker 33 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.Harris, Holder-16-J.Scott.

  • Q2 DEN 4th & 12 at the 72
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 30%

    (:19) 9-R.Dixon punts 54 yards to LAC 18, Center-48-M.Fraboni. 12-D.Davis to LAC 26 for 8 yards (48-M.Fraboni).

  • Q3 LAC 4th & 10 at the 58
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 31%

    (11:07) 16-J.Scott punts 40 yards to DEN 18, Center-47-J.Harris, fair catch by 19-M.Mims.

  • Q3 DEN 4th & 20 at the 54
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 22%

    (7:40) 9-R.Dixon punts 45 yards to LAC 9, Center-48-M.Fraboni, fair catch by 12-D.Davis.

  • Q3 LAC 4th & 8 at the 28
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 30% p(FG) 82%

    (2:39) 11-C.Dicker 46 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.Harris, Holder-16-J.Scott.

  • Q3 DEN 4th & 20 at the 80
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 24%

    (:54) 9-R.Dixon punts 43 yards to LAC 37, Center-48-M.Fraboni. 12-D.Davis pushed ob at DEN 45 for 18 yards (57-K.Welch; 48-M.Fraboni).

  • Q4 LAC 4th & 7 at the 42
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 34% p(FG) 50%

    (14:18) 16-J.Scott punts 37 yards to DEN 5, Center-47-J.Harris, out of bounds.

  • Q4 DEN 4th & 2 at the 39
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 55% p(FG) 58%

    (10:49) (Shotgun) 10-B.Nix pass short middle to 17-D.Vele to LAC 2 for 37 yards (29-T.Still; 32-A.Gilman).

  • Q4 LAC 4th & 9 at the 69
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 34%

    (8:35) 16-J.Scott punts 43 yards to DEN 26, Center-47-J.Harris. 19-M.Mims to DEN 36 for 10 yards (28-H.Haskins; 87-S.Fehoko).

  • Q4 DEN 4th & 5 at the 21
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 38% p(FG) 91%

    (6:02) (Shotgun) 10-B.Nix scrambles left end pushed ob at LAC 15 for 6 yards (25-J.Colson).

  • Q4 LAC 4th & 16 at the 43 late-game
    Chose PUNT Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.33 EP
    p(convert) 23% p(FG) 48%

    (2:36) 16-J.Scott punts 39 yards to DEN 4, Center-47-J.Harris, downed by LAC-24-A.Finley.