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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Los Angeles Chargers 4th & 15 at the 15

Los Angeles Chargers 10 – Denver Broncos 0

What Actually Happened

(6:24) 11-C.Dicker 33 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.Harris, Holder-16-J.Scott.

The Three Options

GO +0.57 EP
  • 21% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +5.34 EP
  • 79% chance to fail: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 15, worth -0.70 EP
KICK +1.26 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 95% chance to make a 32-yard field goal: 3 points, then Denver Broncos takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.39 EP
  • 5% chance to miss: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 25, worth -1.34 EP
PUNT -0.42 EP
  • Denver Broncos would take over around their own 11, worth -0.42 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model