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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Denver Broncos 4th & 12 at the 72

Denver Broncos 0 – Los Angeles Chargers 20

What Actually Happened

(:19) 9-R.Dixon punts 54 yards to LAC 18, Center-48-M.Fraboni. 12-D.Davis to LAC 26 for 8 yards (48-M.Fraboni).

The Three Options

GO -1.74 EP
  • 30% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 60, worth +0.98 EP
  • 70% chance to fail: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 72, worth -2.92 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (89 yards).

PUNT -0.41 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Los Angeles Chargers would take over around their own 30, worth -0.41 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model