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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Los Angeles Chargers 4th & 8 at the 28

Los Angeles Chargers 20 – Denver Broncos 0

What Actually Happened

(2:39) 11-C.Dicker 46 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.Harris, Holder-16-J.Scott.

The Three Options

GO +0.51 EP
  • 30% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 20, worth +4.50 EP
  • 70% chance to fail: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 28, worth -1.25 EP
KICK +0.86 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 82% chance to make a 45-yard field goal: 3 points, then Denver Broncos takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.51 EP
  • 18% chance to miss: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 38, worth -2.13 EP
PUNT -0.22 EP
  • Denver Broncos would take over around their own 11, worth -0.22 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model