Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Los Angeles Chargers 4th & 9 at the 69

Los Angeles Chargers 23 – Denver Broncos 7

(8:35) 16-J.Scott punts 43 yards to DEN 26, Center-47-J.Harris. 19-M.Mims to DEN 36 for 10 yards (28-H.Haskins; 87-S.Fehoko).

The Three Options

GO -2.01 EP

34% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 60, worth +1.65 EP
66% chance to fail: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 69, worth -3.86 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (86 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model