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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Los Angeles Chargers 4th & 2 at the 2

Los Angeles Chargers 0 – Denver Broncos 0

What Actually Happened

(9:28) 11-C.Dicker 20 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.Harris, Holder-16-J.Scott.

The Three Options

GO +2.65 EP
Model's Pick
  • 50% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +5.23 EP
  • 50% chance to fail: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 2, worth +0.13 EP
KICK +1.25 EP
What Happened
  • 99% chance to make a 19-yard field goal: 3 points, then Denver Broncos takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.28 EP
  • 1% chance to miss: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 21, worth -1.03 EP
PUNT -0.36 EP
  • Denver Broncos would take over around their own 11, worth -0.36 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.40 EP