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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Denver Broncos 4th & 6 at the 62

Denver Broncos 0 – Los Angeles Chargers 3

What Actually Happened

(7:59) 9-R.Dixon punts 45 yards to LAC 17, Center-48-M.Fraboni, fair catch by 12-D.Davis.

The Three Options

GO -0.88 EP
  • 40% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 56, worth +2.63 EP
  • 60% chance to fail: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 62, worth -3.19 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (79 yards).

PUNT -0.29 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Los Angeles Chargers would take over around their own 21, worth -0.29 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model