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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 New Orleans Saints 4th & 7 at the 11

New Orleans Saints 10 – Tampa Bay Buccaneers 17

What Actually Happened

(9:03) 19-B.Grupe 29 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-Z.Wood, Holder-43-M.Hayball.

The Three Options

GO +2.00 EP
Model's Pick
  • 36% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 4, worth +5.95 EP
  • 64% chance to fail: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 11, worth -0.21 EP
KICK +1.65 EP
What Happened
  • 97% chance to make a 28-yard field goal: 3 points, then Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.73 EP
  • 3% chance to miss: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 22, worth -0.93 EP
PUNT -0.21 EP
  • Tampa Bay Buccaneers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.21 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.36 EP