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Tampa Bay Buccaneers

HC Todd Bowles
@
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New Orleans Saints

HC Dennis Allen
Sunday 2024-10-13 · 13:00 Mercedes-Benz Superdome, New Orleans US 🏟 Dome Spread -3.5 O/U 42.5

Win Probability

TB
52.5%
NO
47.5%
🏟 Dome

Confidence: <strong>coin flip</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • QB edge to TB: Spencer Rattler (NO) -0.120 vs Baker Mayfield (TB) +0.164 EPA/dropback (NO starting Spencer Rattler in place of Derek Carr)
  • NO offense: +0.112 EPA/play over its last 8 games (4th in the league)
  • TB offense: +0.064 EPA/play over its last 8 games (11th in the league)
  • NO defense: -0.071 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (7th in the league)
  • Indoors — weather neutralised
  • TB on 4 more days rest than NO

Predicted Final Score

TB 24
–
NO 23
Projected margin: TB by 1 Projected total: 47

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 6

TB

Graham Barton C Out Hamstring
Christian Izien S Out Elbow
Kameron Johnson WR Out Ankle
Trey Palmer WR Out Concussion
Earnest Brown DE Out Ribs
Rachaad White RB Doubtful Foot
Luke Goedeke T Questionable Concussion
Calijah Kancey DT Questionable Calf
Jalen McMillan WR Questionable Hamstring
Jordan Whitehead S Questionable Groin
Antoine Winfield S Questionable Foot

NO

Derek Carr QB Out Oblique
Will Harris S Out Hamstring
Taysom Hill TE Out Rib
Cesar Ruiz G Out Knee
Pete Werner LB Out Hamstring
Lucas Patrick G Questionable Chest
Kendre Miller RB Questionable Hamstring
Payton Turner DE Questionable Knee

Pulled fresh for 2024 week 6 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

TB 51
–
NO 27

Prediction missed by 23 pts on margin, 31 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 10:08 TD TB (10:08) (Shotgun) 6-B.Mayfield pass short right to 14-C.Godwin for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN. TB 6 – NO 0
  • Q1 08:54 TD TB (8:54) (Shotgun) 18-S.Rattler pass short right to 12-C.Olave to TB 43 for 5 yards (23-T.Smith). FUMBLES (23-T.Smith), RECOVERED by TB-31-A.Winfield at TB 42. 31-A.Winfield for 58 yards, TOUCHDOWN. The Replay Official reviewed the pass completion ruling, and the play was Upheld. The ruling on the field stands. TB 13 – NO 0
  • Q1 04:04 FG TB (4:04) 4-C.McLaughlin 26 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-45-Z.Triner, Holder-5-J.Camarda. TB 17 – NO 0
  • Q2 13:47 FG NO (13:47) 19-B.Grupe 42 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-Z.Wood, Holder-43-M.Hayball. TB 17 – NO 3
  • Q2 13:18 TD NO (13:18) 5-J.Camarda punts 47 yards to NO 46, Center-45-Z.Triner. 22-R.Shaheed for 54 yards, TOUCHDOWN. TB 17 – NO 9
  • Q2 09:03 FG NO (9:03) 19-B.Grupe 29 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-Z.Wood, Holder-43-M.Hayball. TB 17 – NO 13
  • Q2 08:41 TD NO (8:41) (Shotgun) 18-S.Rattler pass short left to 16-B.Means for 10 yards, TOUCHDOWN. TB 17 – NO 19
  • Q2 05:48 TD TB (5:48) (Shotgun) 6-B.Mayfield pass short right to 44-S.Tucker for 36 yards, TOUCHDOWN. TB 23 – NO 20
  • Q2 02:50 TD NO (2:50) 41-A.Kamara left guard for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN. TB 24 – NO 26
  • Q3 04:37 TD TB (4:37) 6-B.Mayfield pass short right to 14-C.Godwin for 55 yards, TOUCHDOWN. TB 30 – NO 27
  • Q4 12:40 TD TB (12:40) (Shotgun) 6-B.Mayfield pass short left to 88-C.Otton for 8 yards, TOUCHDOWN. TB 37 – NO 27
  • Q4 05:37 TD TB (5:37) 7-B.Irving left guard for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. TB 43 – NO 27
  • Q4 02:00 TD TB (2:00) 44-S.Tucker left end for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN. TB 50 – NO 27

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 NO 4th & 3 at the 63
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.31 EP
    p(convert) 57%

    (8:05) 43-M.Hayball punts 42 yards to TB 21, Center-49-Z.Wood. 15-J.McMillan to TB 21 for no gain (36-R.Payton).

  • Q1 TB 4th & 3 at the 8
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.35 EP
    p(convert) 48% p(FG) 98%

    (4:04) 4-C.McLaughlin 26 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-45-Z.Triner, Holder-5-J.Camarda.

  • Q2 NO 4th & 2 at the 24
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.84 EP
    p(convert) 58% p(FG) 89%

    (13:47) 19-B.Grupe 42 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-Z.Wood, Holder-43-M.Hayball.

  • Q2 NO 4th & 7 at the 11
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.36 EP
    p(convert) 36% p(FG) 97%

    (9:03) 19-B.Grupe 29 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-Z.Wood, Holder-43-M.Hayball.

  • Q2 NO 4th & 10 at the 45
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 34% p(FG) 49%

    (:54) 43-M.Hayball punts 35 yards to TB 10, Center-49-Z.Wood, downed by NO-36-R.Payton.

  • Q3 TB 4th & 4 at the 86
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 53%

    (10:56) 5-J.Camarda punts 41 yards to NO 45, Center-45-Z.Triner. 22-R.Shaheed to NO 47 for 2 yards (37-T.Thomas).

  • Q3 NO 4th & 13 at the 56
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 32%

    (8:45) 43-M.Hayball punts 48 yards to TB 8, Center-49-Z.Wood, fair catch by 15-J.McMillan.

  • Q3 NO 4th & 13 at the 73
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 34%

    (3:12) 43-M.Hayball punts 41 yards to TB 32, Center-49-Z.Wood. 15-J.McMillan to TB 33 for 1 yard (48-J.Gray).

  • Q3 TB 4th & 5 at the 62
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 46%

    (:59) 5-J.Camarda punts 44 yards to NO 18, Center-45-Z.Triner, out of bounds.

  • Q4 NO 4th & 15 at the 76
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 32%

    (11:49) 43-M.Hayball punts 58 yards to TB 18, Center-49-Z.Wood. 15-J.McMillan to TB 29 for 11 yards (98-P.Turner; 49-Z.Wood).

  • Q4 NO 4th & 5 at the 55 late-game
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 47%

    (:55) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 18-S.Rattler pass short middle to 11-C.Wilson to TB 30 for 25 yards (26-K.Merriweather).