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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 4th & 4 at the 86

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 24 – New Orleans Saints 27

What Actually Happened

(10:56) 5-J.Camarda punts 41 yards to NO 45, Center-45-Z.Triner. 22-R.Shaheed to NO 47 for 2 yards (37-T.Thomas).

The Three Options

GO -2.13 EP
Model's Pick
  • 53% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 82, worth +0.55 EP
  • 47% chance to fail: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 86, worth -5.16 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (103 yards).

PUNT -2.40 EP
What Happened
  • New Orleans Saints would take over around their own 44, worth -2.40 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model