Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 New Orleans Saints 4th & 13 at the 73

New Orleans Saints 27 – Tampa Bay Buccaneers 31

(3:12) 43-M.Hayball punts 41 yards to TB 32, Center-49-Z.Wood. 15-J.McMillan to TB 33 for 1 yard (48-J.Gray).

The Three Options

GO -2.08 EP

34% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 60, worth +2.15 EP
66% chance to fail: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 73, worth -4.25 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (90 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model