4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 4th & 5 at the 62

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 31 – New Orleans Saints 27

What Actually Happened

(:59) 5-J.Camarda punts 44 yards to NO 18, Center-45-Z.Triner, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -0.88 EP
  • 46% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 57, worth +2.05 EP
  • 54% chance to fail: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 62, worth -3.40 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (79 yards).

PUNT -0.86 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • New Orleans Saints would take over around their own 21, worth -0.86 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model