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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 New Orleans Saints 4th & 5 at the 55

New Orleans Saints 27 – Tampa Bay Buccaneers 51

What Actually Happened

(:55) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 18-S.Rattler pass short middle to 11-C.Wilson to TB 30 for 25 yards (26-K.Merriweather).

The Three Options

GO +0.31 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 47% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 50, worth +1.37 EP
  • 53% chance to fail: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 55, worth -0.64 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (72 yards).

PUNT -0.14 EP
  • Tampa Bay Buccaneers would take over around their own 16, worth -0.14 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model